Bahia vs Juventude Prediction 27.07.2025
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Bahia vs Juventude Prediction
Bahia vs Juventude Prediction and Betting Tips for Sunday, July 28, in Round 17 of the 2025 Brazilian Serie A. Bahia return to the Arena Fonte Nova looking to respond after a rough midweek in continental play. In this piece, you’ll find detailed Brazilian Serie A Predictions powered by data, form, and human insight from the team at XpertStats.
- Bahia remain unbeaten at home in the league this season, with five wins and two draws.
- Juventude have the worst defensive record in the division, conceding 29 goals in 11 matches.
- The last time Juventude beat Bahia was in November 2024 — their only win in the last seven meetings.
- Bahia have scored in all but one home game this season.
That Copa Sudamericana exit stung. Bahia’s 2-0 defeat to América de Cali on Wednesday ended their six-game unbeaten run and may have dented morale. Still, their domestic form remains solid. Rogerio Ceni’s side sit sixth in the table and are unbeaten at home, picking up 17 points from a possible 21 at the Fonte Nova. Even without key names like Erick and Kanu, the hosts have built a reputation for resilience, especially against weaker opposition. They’ll be targeting maximum points here before shifting focus to their cup tie against Retro next week.
There’s more good news for Bahia: this match kicks off a golden stretch of fixtures against relegation candidates. That starts with Juventude, who they’ve dominated in recent history, unbeaten in six of their last seven encounters. Sure, they lost the most recent clash in November, but this Bahia side is stronger now, more confident, and particularly dangerous at home. With an average of 1.43 goals scored and just 0.71 conceded per game, they’re one of the most balanced outfits in the league.
And then there’s Juventude. Claudio Tencati’s men opened the season brightly but have since crashed hard. They’ve lost seven of their last nine and come into this one fresh off a painful 1-0 defeat to São Paulo. Their away form? Let’s not sugarcoat it: dreadful. No team has conceded more goals this season, 29 in total, at an eye-watering average of 3.5 per game. It’s hard to see where the resistance is going to come from, especially with several players out, including Gilberto, Marcos Paulo, and the suspended Caique Goncalves.
With the worst defense in the league and a toothless attack, just 0.17 goals scored on average, Juventude are barely clinging to top-flight status. They’ve managed only two wins all season and are stuck in the relegation zone, three points from safety. Can they pull off a shock result in Salvador? Maybe. But with Bahia unbeaten at home and hungry to bounce back, the odds are stacked heavily against them. It’s the kind of game that looks like a mismatch, and might just play out that way. Expect intensity, expect pressure, and possibly, expect goals.
Brazilian Serie A Predictions from XpertStats are always rooted in form, facts, and feeling and this one’s no different.
Bahia have been rock solid at home, with five wins in seven games and no losses. Against a Juventude side that’s crumbling defensively, backing the hosts to win by at least two goals makes sense. Juventude have conceded 3.5 goals per game: the worst in the league, and they’ll be without key players like Gilberto and Caique Goncalves. Bahia, on the other hand, have averaged 1.43 goals per game and boast one of the most organized defenses in the league. They’ve also dominated this matchup historically, going unbeaten in six of their last seven meetings. With the crowd behind them and a point to prove after their Sudamericana exit, Bahia should control this from the first whistle. This feels like a perfect bounce-back spot for a side chasing the top four. The -1.5 line gives good value based on the gap in form, morale, and quality.
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