Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro Prediction 28.07.2025
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Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro Prediction
Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro Prediction and Betting Tips for Matchday 17 of the Brazilian Serie A, set for Sunday, July 28. The clash goes down at the Estadio do Maracana, where Flamengo look to extend their unbeaten home run and keep their title chase on track. In this article, you’ll discover Brazilian Serie A Predictions with expert tips from XpertStats.
- Flamengo are unbeaten at home in Serie A this season, with a staggering 20-1 goal differential.
- Atletico Mineiro have lost their last two league games and were just eliminated from the Copa Sudamericana.
- The last eight head-to-head meetings have seen six Flamengo wins and just one Atletico win.
- Flamengo lead the league in goals scored (29) and have conceded just six all season.
Flamengo are flying. Literally. They’ve scored 29 goals this season and let in just six. That’s not just good, it’s terrifying if you’re the opposition. After a late 2-1 win at Bragantino last weekend, their belief is sky-high. Leo Pereira and Wesley’s goals rescued the day, and with Wesley possibly heading to Roma, he might’ve signed off with a flourish. What’s more? They’ve won six of their last eight against Atletico Mineiro. At the Maracana, they’ve conceded just one goal in eight matches. Read that again. One. No wonder they’re breathing down Cruzeiro’s neck with a game in hand.
But don’t let the numbers make you think it’s smooth sailing. Flamengo are dealing with a pretty long injury list. Alex Sandro, Danilo, and Plata are out, and Saul Niguez hasn’t been fit to feature. Ayrton Lucas and Michael haven’t played in weeks, and it’s unclear if they’ll be back in time. Still, they’ve managed just fine so far. That speaks volumes about squad depth and Filipe Luis’s tactical work. With three clashes against Mineiro coming up in ten days, this one might set the tone for the rest.
As for Atletico Mineiro? It’s been a bruising few weeks. They were dumped out of the Copa Sudamericana on penalties by Bucaramanga. Ouch. Before that, they lost to Palmeiras and Bahia. Confidence? Low. League standing? Ninth. Their away form is especially worrying—all four of their league defeats have come on the road. And now, a trip to a fortress like the Maracana? Cuca’s got some thinking to do. Can Hulk and co. deliver when it matters?
Scoring first might be Galo’s only real hope. Flamengo have conceded first in five of their last seven, so there’s a glimmer there. But with a BTTS percentage of just 13% for Flamengo, don’t bank on many cracks in their armor. The visitors need to dig deep, mentally and tactically. But right now, that feels like asking a lot. Maybe too much.
It’s tough to say how this one ends exactly, but on current form and home strength, it’s hard to see anything other than another Flamengo win. Maybe even comfortably so.
Flamengo’s dominant home record makes this handicap line extremely appealing. They've won six of their eight league matches at the Maracana with a staggering 20-1 aggregate scoreline. That’s an average win margin of more than two goals per game. Offensively, they're unmatched in the league, averaging 2.5 goals per match, while defensively, they concede just 0.13. Atletico Mineiro, on the other hand, are reeling from back-to-back league defeats and a gut-wrenching Copa Sudamericana exit. They've lost four times on the road this season, every defeat coming by more than one goal. With Flamengo firing on all cylinders and pushing for the title, and Mineiro missing key players like Guilherme Arana and Rubens, it’s hard to envision a close contest. The recent head-to-head record also leans heavily in Flamengo’s favor with six wins in the last eight meetings. All signs point toward a comfortable home win, making Flamengo -1.5 a solid pick.
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