Fluminense vs Gremio Prediction 03.08.2025
Share
Fluminense vs Gremio Prediction
Fluminense vs Gremio Prediction and Betting Tips for Saturday’s showdown in the Brazilian Serie A at the iconic Maracanã. Both teams sit on 20 points, but Fluminense have played one game less. After ending a five-game winless run in style during midweek Copa do Brasil action, Fluzão are hoping that result sparks a revival. In this article, you’ll discover Brazilian Serie A Predictions backed by stats and insight from XpertStats.
- Fluminense and Gremio are level on 20 points heading into Saturday’s clash.
- Both sides come into this game fresh off morale-boosting wins.
- Fluzão haven’t beaten Gremio in the league since 2019 — can they finally turn it around?
- High Over 1.5 Goals probability: 86% for Fluminense, 88% for Gremio this season.
It’s been a rocky road lately for Fluminense. A 2-1 win over Internacional in the cup was a much-needed breather after five straight losses. Everaldo’s first-half double was a reminder that this team still has bite when it clicks. But let’s not pretend all is rosy, they’ve lost their last two home games, conceding two goals in each. And despite solid numbers in attack (1.29 goals per game, Over 1.5 in 86% of matches), defensive fragility continues to haunt them.
Can Fluzão snap their Serie A curse against Gremio? The last time they managed a league win over the Imortal Tricolor was way back in 2019. Even so, Gremio’s away form is hardly threatening. They’ve dropped three of their last four on the road and scored in just two of those games. One away win since August 2024? That’s not the stuff of traveling warriors. Still, Martin Braithwaite’s brace last time out could light a fire under this team at just the right moment.
Gremio’s 2-1 win over Fortaleza last weekend might’ve been just what they needed. They’d gone five games without a win before that. But here’s the catch, they’ve been leaky at the back, shipping an average of 1.88 goals per match. With BTTS landing in 63% of their games and Over 1.5 hitting in 88%, it’s not hard to see why most of their fixtures have goals on both ends. Question is: can they outscore their flaws on the road?
There’s tension in the air ahead of this one. Two desperate sides, both with just one win in their last five league matches. Something’s got to give. With shaky defenses and history tilting slightly toward the visitors, this clash has the makings of a gritty, goal-laced affair. But at home and with a midweek lift, Flu might just hold the edge, or at least avoid defeat.
Brazilian Serie A Predictions don’t always come easy, but when the stats talk, we listen.
Fluminense may not be flying high, but their midweek 2-1 Copa do Brasil win over Internacional came at just the right time. That victory ended a painful five game losing streak and injected some much-needed belief back into the squad. Meanwhile, Gremio have been struggling badly away from home, they’ve lost 3 of their last 4 away matches and have just one road win in Serie A since August 2024. Despite Gremio's historical edge in this fixture, Flu have shown signs of life. Everaldo’s brace midweek highlighted their attacking threat when things click. With Gremio conceding an average of 1.88 goals per game and Fluminense scoring in 86% of their matches, the home side has every chance to avoid defeat. Given their momentum boost and Gremio’s away woes, the double chance on Fluminense (1X) looks like a solid bet. It's not risk-free, but it's smart given the context.
When you look at the numbers, Over 1.5 Goals is a bet that almost picks itself. Fluminense have seen this line cleared in 86% of their matches this season, and Gremio are even higher at 88%. That’s not a coincidence — both sides have fragile defenses and enough firepower to get on the scoresheet. Even if this turns into a cagey affair early on, the probability of at least two goals feels strong. Both teams scored twice in their recent matches and will look to build on that form. Gremio’s average goals per match sits at 2.75, Fluminense’s at 2.43, those are healthy numbers. With Braithwaite and Everaldo both hitting braces in their last outings, this game could quietly turn into a sneaky goal fest. You don’t need fireworks, just two goals. Considering how often these sides hit that number, it’s a smart, low-risk play.
More Predictions:
