Fluminense vs Palmeiras Prediction 23.07.2025
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Fluminense vs Palmeiras Prediction
Fluminense vs Palmeiras Prediction and Betting Tips for Wednesday, July 24 in Round 16 of the Brazilian Serie A. The action unfolds at the iconic Maracana, where both clubs have contrasting trajectories since the Club World Cup. In this article, you’ll get exclusive Brazilian Serie A Predictions brought to you by the XpertStats tipsters.
- Fluminense are winless in three matches since the Club World Cup.
- Palmeiras have picked up 4 points from their last 2 league games.
- Both teams average 2.33 goals per game this season.
- Palmeiras have collected 15 of a possible 18 points away from home.
Let’s be honest, it hasn’t been a happy return to domestic duties for Fluminense. They’ve lost back-to-back league games without scoring including a gut-punch derby defeat to Flamengo where Pedro snatched it late. Add that to their 2-0 semi-final loss to Chelsea, and it’s now three straight games without a goal. Renato Gaucho’s side, still reeling, now sit 8th in the table and trail Palmeiras by six points. That’s not ideal with a team missing key players like Ganso and Otavio. And with Cano still out of the mix, their attack lacks bite. Maracana or not, pressure’s piling up fast.
That said, Big Flu do have some home comforts to lean on. Four wins in their last six home outings is no fluke. In fact, before that loss to Cruzeiro, they’d been rock solid in front of their fans. Kevin Serna’s flashes of brilliance even if he’s only started four matches offer hope. But is that enough against one of the league’s best traveling teams? It’s hard to say. The margins are razor-thin. And with some players returning from knocks, this is shaping up to be a true character test for Renato’s men.
Palmeiras, on the other hand, are quietly building momentum. A draw and a win since returning from the Club World Cup has kept them firmly in the top four with two games in hand on the leaders. That 3-2 win over Atletico Mineiro last Sunday? Wild. Facundo Torres ran the show, grabbing an assist and continuing a great run of form. And while their home record’s been sketchy, the road has been kinder. They’ve racked up 15 out of 18 possible points away. Best in the league, actually. That confidence could prove crucial at the Maracana.
Still, Palmeiras haven’t beaten Fluminense in Rio since 2017. That’s a long wait and a tough psychological hurdle. They’ll also be missing Bruno Fuchs (suspension) and a handful of key names through injury. No Estevao Willian either, so expect more from Vitor Roque and the ever-influential Torres. Even so, given their form and tactical discipline under Abel Ferreira, they’ll fancy their chances of at least avoiding defeat. It’s the kind of game that could go down to the wire, and maybe, just maybe, break that Rio curse.
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Palmeiras have been a powerhouse on the road this season, taking 15 points from a possible 18 away from home the best away record in the league. That’s no fluke. Even without Estevao Willian and a few injured starters, Abel Ferreira’s squad remains deep and organized. Facundo Torres has stepped up big time, directly involved in five goals, and Vitor Roque is due a breakout. Fluminense, meanwhile, come into this one with three straight defeats across all competitions and zero goals scored in that span. Missing creative force Ganso and with Cano uncertain, Tricolor's attacking setup looks disjointed. Despite their generally strong home form, they looked flat in the recent loss to Cruzeiro at the Maracana. With Palmeiras unbeaten in their last two league matches and chasing a top-three spot, X2 feels like solid value especially considering the form trajectory. A draw or Palmeiras win seems highly probable based on the current context.
With both teams capable of sustained possession and wing play, this fixture shapes up well for corner accumulation. Fluminense have relied on wide men like Serna to break down defenses, especially in the absence of Cano and Ganso. This often forces them to attack through the flanks and settle for corners under pressure. Meanwhile, Palmeiras’ setup under Abel Ferreira emphasizes overlapping fullbacks and early crosses which naturally leads to corner kicks. Against Atletico Mineiro, Palmeiras alone had 6 corners, and in tighter games they tend to rack up more through sustained pressure. Both sides also average above 2 goals per game, suggesting an open contest where both will create chances. Given the stakes and both teams' urgency to earn points, especially Fluminense looking to rebound at home, the game is unlikely to be cagey. Over 7.5 corners is very attainable and aligns with each side’s tactical tendencies.
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