Mirassol vs Vitoria Prediction 26.07.2025
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Mirassol vs Vitoria Prediction
Mirassol vs Vitoria Prediction and Betting Tips for Saturday, July 26 at Estadio Jose Maria de Campos Maia. This clash sees a red-hot home side take on a struggling visitor desperate to turn things around. In this article, you’ll discover Brazilian Serie A Predictions from XpertStats tipsters who break down the trends, stats, and key numbers you need to know.
- Mirassol are unbeaten in 14 straight home league games, winning the last three
- Vitoria have failed to score in their last three away matches
- Mirassol boast an average of 2.17 goals scored per match
- Vitoria have just one win in their last 10 games across all competitions
There’s just something about Mirassol when they play at home. Rafael Guanaes’s men have been a fortress in front of their fans, unbeaten in their last 14 league games on home turf. Not only that, but they’ve won their last three with some swagger including a convincing 3-0 dismantling of Santos. With 23 goals scored in just 15 rounds, they’re looking more and more like a side with genuine top-four potential. Chico and Negueba were on the scoresheet again midweek in a tidy 2-0 win over Ceara. Momentum? Yeah, they’ve got it.
And defensively? Mirassol are no slouches either. They’ve conceded just 0.83 goals per game and have kept things tight even when they don’t blow teams away. BTTS has landed in 67% of their matches, but that’s often more about their attacking consistency than defensive lapses. Reinaldo, with seven goals to his name, is likely to be a handful again, especially with Vitoria’s defensive absences. That said, Guanaes will have to shuffle things slightly, with Danielzinho and Joao Victor both missing through suspension.
On the other side of the pitch, it’s hard to find a reason to back Vitoria with any confidence. They’ve gone 10 away league matches without a win. Ten. And in the last three of those? Not a single goal scored. Even when they show a bit of fight, like in the dramatic 2-2 draw with Sport Recife last week—they seem to let it slip again. Romarinho’s injury-time brace saved face, but the cracks remain. Sitting in 15th with 16 points from 16 games, it’s tough to see where things turn unless something drastic changes.
Vitoria manager Thiago Carpini will be forced to juggle his lineup again, with Erick and Osvaldo suspended and both Jamerson and Neris ruled out. There’s pressure, no doubt. Maybe even desperation. Can they pull off a shock in Sao Paulo? Never say never but right now, it’s hard to look past Brazilian Serie A Predictions favoring the in-form hosts.
Mirassol to win is the smart play—and the numbers back it up. They’re undefeated in their last 14 home league matches and have won their last three in a row, including a clinical 3-0 win over Santos and a 2-0 away victory against Ceara. They’re averaging 2.17 goals per game while conceding just 0.83. In contrast, Vitoria are a mess away from home, going 10 straight road matches without a win and failing to score in their last three. Key players like Erick and Osvaldo are suspended, weakening an already struggling squad. Mirassol, on the other hand, have Reinaldo firing with seven goals this season and a cohesive side despite a couple of absentees. The difference in momentum, firepower, and defensive organization is too stark to ignore. Backing Mirassol at home isn’t just safe, it’s backed by form, stats, and the eye test.
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