Sao Paulo vs Corinthians Prediction 20.07.2025
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Sao Paulo vs Corinthians Prediction
Sao Paulo vs Corinthians Prediction and Betting Tips for Saturday, July 20, in the Brazilian Serie A. The derby at Estádio do Morumbi pits two sides eager to restore consistency in their league campaigns. In this article, you’ll find expert Brazilian Serie A Predictions backed by form, statistics, and team news.
- Sao Paulo are winless in their last five Serie A matches, conceding in each game
- Corinthians claimed their first away win of the season midweek against Ceara
- Both teams average over 31 fouls per game this season
- Tricolor Paulista have key players out injured, including Calleri and Lucas Moura
Sao Paulo enter this Clássico Majestoso on a concerning run of five games without a win in the league. Hernan Crespo’s side have struggled at both ends of the pitch, most notably conceding in 10 consecutive league matches. The absence of key attackers like Calleri and Lucas Moura has left them short on cutting edge, while defensively, they’ve been exposed early, conceding first in four of their last five matches. With just two wins in their last six home outings, Tricolor Paulista find themselves only a point above the relegation zone.
The home side’s inability to control games from the start has been a recurring theme, and despite André Silva’s recent brace, sustained attacking pressure has been rare. Their defensive lapses have been punished repeatedly, shipping two goals in each of their last four league defeats. Even at Estádio do Morumbi, Sao Paulo have looked vulnerable, falling to defeats against Vasco da Gama and Mirassol. Crespo’s options are limited heading into Saturday, with Pablo Maia a doubt and multiple starters ruled out.
Corinthians, on the other hand, managed a vital 1-0 away win over Ceara earlier this week, halting a five-game winless streak. That victory marked their first on the road in this campaign, offering a much-needed confidence boost. Still, their away form remains patchy, with just one win in seven outings and only four goals scored in that stretch. The return of Memphis Depay and Angel Romero adds attacking threat, but Dorival Junior’s side will need greater cohesion to climb into the top half of the table.
While they’ve lacked firepower, Corinthians have built a compact, counter-attacking style, relying on set-pieces and quick transitions. Defensively, they’ve kept it tight, seeing under 2.5 goals in eight of their last nine games. This controlled approach has also resulted in a high number of fouls, averaging 31.58 total per match. With both sides ranking among the most aggressive teams in terms of challenges, expect a gritty, hard-fought derby, a fixture that rarely passes without incident. Keep an eye on the foul count as a key trend in this encounter.
This Clássico Majestoso promises to be a physical battle, and the numbers back it up. Sao Paulo average a massive 32.86 total fouls per match this season, while Corinthians are not far behind at 31.58. The intensity of this historic rivalry often translates to scrappy, hard-fought football. Both teams feature aggressive midfielders and forwards who draw contact, Sao Paulo’s average fouls won sits at 16.57, nearly matching their fouls committed (16.29). Similarly, Corinthians commit 15.29 fouls and win 16.29 on average. With injuries limiting the fluency of both attacks, expect tactical fouls, aerial duels, and midfield scuffles to dominate proceedings. This fixture also carries emotional weight, and recent history shows that matches between these sides often boil over. Given these trends and the pressure on both teams to deliver results, Over 28.5 Fouls stands out as a well-justified pick with a strong statistical foundation.
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