Sport Recife vs Bahia Prediction 02.08.2025
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Sport Recife vs Bahia Prediction
Sport Recife vs Bahia Prediction and Betting Tips for Matchday 16 of the Brazilian Serie A, set for Monday, August 5. The game kicks off at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho with Recife still chasing their first win of the season. In this article, you’ll find Brazilian Serie A Predictions and insights from XpertStats experts.
- Sport Recife are winless in 15 Brazilian Serie A matches this season
- Bahia have won six of their last nine competitive games
- The last head-to-head ended in a 2-1 win for Bahia in February 2024
- Sport Recife conceded two late goals in a 2-2 draw with 10-man Santos
Sport Recife are on a freefall. After 15 games, they’ve yet to record a single win, a stat that’s as brutal as it is alarming. Their recent 2-2 draw at home against Santos offered a glimmer of hope, with Derik Lacerda opening the scoring early and a second goal gifted by a Santos own goal. But then came the collapse: two late goals by a 10-man opposition. That says a lot. Recife’s defense continues to leak, conceding an average of 1.57 goals per match. At the same time, they’re scoring just 0.57 on average. That kind of imbalance is a relegation recipe. Can they turn it around? It’s getting harder to see how.
Bahia, on the other hand, are flying high. A commanding 3-0 win over Juventude in their last league outing was followed by a dramatic 3-2 Copa do Betano win over Retro. Luciano Rodriguez stole the show with a quick brace in the opening 20 minutes. That kind of firepower could be key on the road, especially against a struggling defense like Recife’s. But here’s the twist: Bahia have only won one of their last eight away matches. That travel form could haunt them if they’re not careful.
Still, momentum is clearly with Bahia. They’ve now gone nine games with just one loss across all competitions. That’s not just luck, it’s consistency, even if a little erratic on the road. They’re sitting pretty in fourth place with 28 points, and a win here could take them closer to the top. The team seems to be finding rhythm at the right time, and with Sport Recife offering very little resistance, this might be their best shot to finally break that away curse.
Head-to-head history slightly favors Recife, with 14 wins to Bahia’s 12 across 31 meetings. But the most recent encounter, a 2-1 Bahia win in February, shows where the current power lies. Given Recife’s dire form and Bahia’s momentum, the visitors will like their chances, even if it’s not going to be a cakewalk. Expect goals, nervy moments, and perhaps, another nail in Recife’s relegation coffin. Check our Brazilian Serie A Predictions section for the latest updates and betting analysis.
Bahia are in much better form than Sport Recife, and it's hard to ignore the contrast. Recife are winless in 15 league games, with 10 losses and only five points to their name. Despite home advantage, they just don’t seem to have the firepower or composure to seal a result. Their average of just 0.57 goals scored per match underlines that struggle. Bahia, meanwhile, have won six of their last nine in all competitions and recently thrashed Juventude 3-0. Yes, their away form isn't great, just one win in eight, but against the league’s bottom side, even a draw feels like the minimum. With Bahia’s momentum and Recife’s defensive fragility (1.57 goals conceded per game), backing the visitors to avoid defeat feels like a solid bet.
While Sport Recife struggle to score consistently, their games often feature goals, largely due to their defensive issues. They concede an average of 1.57 goals per match. Their last match, a 2-2 draw against Santos, shows how open their games can be, especially late on. Bahia, meanwhile, average 1.00 goal scored and 1.14 conceded, with a total average of 2.14 goals per game, exactly the same as Recife. Add in Bahia’s recent 3-0 win and 3-2 thriller in the cup, and it’s clear they’ve been involved in high-scoring affairs. Four of Bahia’s last five matches have produced three goals or more. Even if Recife don’t contribute heavily on the scoreboard, Bahia’s firepower and Recife’s porous defense should be enough to push this over the 1.5 mark.
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